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Daerkannon Shimmerscale Gallente Paxton Industries	Posted - 2007.03.29 17:07:00 - [1] So I've been following this thread a while as I have a vested interest in invention (as well as two months of planned training time dependent on the results here). Hopefully I'll be able to add some hard data to this thread soon. In the meantime, however, I thought I'd throw out some thoughts I had on the success formula. My familiarity with other reverse engineered CCP forumlae leads me to believe that the formula we are looking for will be something like: (Base Chance) x (1+Skill1x0.05) x (1+Skill2x0.05) x (1+Skill3x0.05) x MetaMod x Decryptor The big question mark then is the base chance and how the meta-item affects the outcome. I'd originally been operating under the assumption that the base chance was around 10-15% for ships and 30-35% for modules, but then I had an interesting thought. What if we accept the 20% and 40% base chances previously mentioned and instead look at the meta-item as a penalty reduction? If we assume that a job with no meta item gives you a 25% penalty (CCP loves their 5% after all) and that each meta-level of an item reduces that by 5% then we end up very close to the numbers we're seeing. --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Paxton Industries is recruiting.
Daerkannon Shimmerscale Gallente Paxton Industries	Posted - 2007.04.04 15:35:00 - [2] Edited by: Daerkannon Shimmerscale on 04/04/2007 15:37:32 Originally by: Pale NPastey The formulas you number crunchers out there come up with just make my head hurt. How can you guys go back and forth and assume you're correct with such limited information. Forgive me for trolling but the hardcore formulas presented here are a joke! Can't we agree that the majority of what we're all workng under (for the foreseeable future) is educated guesses and assumptions? I do (assume) think it's safe to assume that CCP will be making stealth adjustments to the sucess percentages of individual items for a while. 1) theres no way to predict the outcome until you cut it loose and see what happens, it can be so easy that they're as available and cheap as T1. 2)It seems that it'd be asking for headaches to announce every tweak to every item (cloak sucess percentages being dropped 2% today at downtime, something else increased 5%, etc. and see that daily) People would blow a gasket over every item and adjustment. The successes/failures, attempts and general information is the only helpful stuff here. We can't come up with hard fomulas without a lot more time and information. Course....it would be nice if ccp would just release the percentages.. FYI-5 Hulk atempts, all using 10 run (max) bpc's with ME/PE 0, coveter as base item and 1.1 sucess decrypter first 3 attempts, skill were 3/4/4 - All Failed 4th and 5th attempt had skills at 4/4/4-1 success. 2-run -4ME/PE To answer your question, we make assumptions because that is part of the scientific process. Gather some data, make a theory and establish a possibility. Gather more data and see if that guess is right (it usually isn't). Refine your equation until you get something that accounts for 99% of all cases. Then you're probably very close to the actual result. Sometimes your assumptions prove to be wrong and you have to change those. There is no evidence to suggest that CCP is tweaking invention secretly without telling the player base. Most of the samples presented here are, individually, far too statistically small to make any good observations from. Even with an 80% success rate failing 10 jobs in a row isn't that improbable. Incidentally Newton's equations for physics are still being used today even though Einstein's equations superseded his because Newton's equations are good enough for 99% of what we need them for even if they have since been proven to be incorrect (and even Einstein's equations have faults). --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Paxton Industries is recruiting.
Daerkannon Shimmerscale Gallente Paxton Industries	Posted - 2007.04.04 22:11:00 - [3] Originally by: Kaaii Another player "finishes" (delivers) the job. This has no effect on the outcome right?? If player 1 has all skills, player 2 has none but delivers? Im thinking "probably" not, but I had an instance where my skills were lower than the starters(job) skills and when i delivered the job, it failed, bad luck i suppose but it got me thinking... I would think that is safe to assume that whomever delivers the job has no effect on the outcome of the job since that's consistent with how the rest of the manufacturing discipline works. If I pop in a job at PE5 and later a corp mate with PE3 delivers it, it doesn't suddenly cost more minerals. --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs!
Daerkannon Shimmerscale Gallente Paxton Industries	Posted - 2007.04.06 06:02:00 - [4] Originally by: Dyeadmheet I don't think it changes automatically, or that it's changed at EVERY downtime, but I do think that these base success probabilities have been changed on certain items in order to keep their price from dropping "too low." If core prices drop too far and some items drop too far in price again, these base chances will be changed to compensate. I'm not really sure why people believe this. CCP is perfectly happy to let the player driven market determine what's worthwhile to make and what isn't without tinkering with success chances on an per item basis. I know I sure wouldn't want to manage a database with thousands of individual base chances. --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs!
Daerkannon Shimmerscale Gallente Paxton Industries Paxton Federation	Posted - 2007.05.21 14:05:00 - [5] Ok, finally got my first couple of batches of results out of SiSi. The database update kinda screwed me over and cost me more time to get set up again. Batch 1: Skill level (Encryption/DC1/DC2): 1/1/1 Interface (Ship/Tuner/Data): Data Number of datacores from one group: 2 Decryptor (0.4x/0.8x/1.0x/1.1x/1.3x): None Item meta level (0/1/2/3/4): None Attempts: 202 Successes: 82 Batch 2: Skill level (Encryption/DC1/DC2): 1/1/1 Interface (Ship/Tuner/Data): Data Number of datacores from one group: 2 Decryptor (0.4x/0.8x/1.0x/1.1x/1.3x): None Item meta level (0/1/2/3/4): None Attempts: 200 Successes: 91 The only difference between batch one and batch two is that batch one was done on max run BPCs and batch two was done on one run BPCs. I get two conclusions from this batch of data: 1) Between my data and the poster before me it strongly suggests a base 40% chance for module invention. 2) We can put to rest the idea that the number of runs on the BPC has any influence on the success of the job. If we combine these results then we see 402 attempts with 173 successes or a 43% success rate. I am now working on testing to see if a metal level 0 item has any appreciable affect on invention. My gut says no at this point. All you Hulk inventors might be able to save yourself a few hundred million in Covetors. --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs!
Daerkannon Shimmerscale Gallente Paxton Industries Paxton Federation	Posted - 2007.05.25 21:59:00 - [6] Bumping this thread because it's far more important than the garbage being spewed onto the forums atm. Need more people testing! (BTW, current results suggest that a meta-level 0 item has no effect on invention chances, but I'll post my final results when I've reached 400 attempts) --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs!
Daerkannon Shimmerscale Gallente Paxton Industries Paxton Federation	Posted - 2007.05.29 16:38:00 - [7] Originally by: William Alex Has there been conclusive proof that using a t1 ship in 'ship' invention increases your chance for success. If so then has the increase been deduced? There has been no conclusive proof that I've seen. In fact my tests suggest it may have no affect at all. I'm currently at attempt 170 out of 400 planned and my success rate is dead on for testing without a meta-item. Now granted I'm testing on modules, but I have no reason to believe that meta-items behave differently for ships than they do for modules. A T1 basic item (cap rechargers in my case) has the same meta-level as a T1 basic ship. --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs!

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